While the deficit of the State is established at 67This is an ethic of aesthetics in gestationBank balance sheets have changed in natureBut the truth of a day is not that of the next dayCompromised last July with the highest euro to 1Implicit default rates are still too highVivendi in 2002 it was in fact 35 billion euros of debt and lossesOnly 20 of our fellow citizens are mobilized on this issueNicolas Sarkozy should push to pragmatismWe will grant three new blocks to exploreThe adoption by the US Senate of the bailout of the financial system in the United States has not caused the euphoria on stock markets. Always very nervous stock market continued to find a balance point yesterday, without always achieve. Operators and investors do will be really reassured that once that the amended text will have crossed the barrier of the House of representatives, which is again faced today. No one dare to consider a new release of the project, which could cause a descent to the underworld of the even more spectacular than registered Monday indices.
The worsening of the banking crisis in the United States and its spread to several emblematic institutions of the old Continent have precipitated equity markets to the lowest of the year, often on unknown levels for three years. Investors risk appetite is significantly reduced for the benefit of obligations of State and liquidity. According the balance established by ING Investment Management, actions thus fell by an average of 14.1 in September, bearing their decline since January to 28.6. In twelve months, this asset class will be so devalued 31.2. It is say if actions, that for some already agreed to consider attractive one year ago, are now in recovery levels excessively low.
Multi-management of JPMorgan Asset Management team pointed out that the performance of the dividends in continental Europe has converged for the first time since several decades towards the 10-year bond yield. "This means firstly that the European shares are now valued as of the obligations and, then, that markets incorporate more no growth in the medium term." "It is totally abnormal," rail the authors of the study. The difficult Outlook for the banking system and, more generally, of the economy are offset by very attractive valuations, who indeed have already more or less a role of damper at the height of the crisis. In this regard, it is interesting to note, for example, the Paris CAC 40 index has not continued a long time its two recent incursions under the 4,000 points...
European potential
If the House of representatives tomorrow for the amended plan, to some point out that exchanges could very quickly to recover. "The markets are extremely overbooked, we could attend a typical technical recovery violent in a bearish market" still prognostic JPMorgan Asset Management. In this context, the European actions appears to be much better armed to take advantage of a rebound, the current crisis, many international investors have sur-pondérés the United States as evidence the recent rebound of the dollar at the expense of other regions. If a sustainable recovery, another argument weighs at least for stabilization. After the last movement of declining equity markets already anticipate a downturn in the profits of the business by about 20 in the United States and 30 in Europe. "From there, we believe that, in the months to come, markets evolve in an area of low amplitude rating and indices are not far removed from the low point," explain the managers of ING Investment Management. Very short term, they are betting on the persistence of high volatility before the elasticity of raw material prices and uncertainty about the health of the economy. Large relief of the recipient ability of companies is not expected before mid-2009 and the experience proves that equity markets are starting to anticipate this development only six months before.
