The 787 still boasts more than 800 orders against 483 for the A350

It goes without saying that the 2009 Le Bourget Air Show will have little in common with the previous show. In 2007, Airbus beat all records by pulling in 460 firm orders during the show, which allowed it to move back ahead of Boeing. By the end of that year's show, the two plane-makers had racked up more than 1,156 orders, with Airbus taking the upper hand with 661. This year, the marketing director of Airbus will count himself lucky if he manages to book 300 orders by December. By end-April, Airbus's order book had grown by just 11 planes since 1 January, against zero for Boeing, and new contracts will be thin on the ground at Le Bourget on both the Airbus and Boeing stands. As Thomas Enders, Chairman and CEO of Airbus, explained recently in Les Echos, the priority for sales teams is now to transform existing orders into crushing rather than attempting to win new orders. There is little likelihood of champagne corks popping on a daily basis.

Several major contracts

On top of the recession in air travel Airbus also faces the specific case of the Air France crash, which is likely to see Airbus moderate its position somewhat. The day after the disaster, the plane-maker, which generally shows the main models in its fleet, decided not to show the A330 at Le Bourget. As for Boeing, the thousands of redundancies that were announced at the beginning of the year, and which have begun to take effect in the USA, will also lead to directors keeping a relatively low profile. This does not mean that the US-Europe face off will lose any of its edge, although it will now be fought out in areas other than the announcement of orders. After more than a year's wait, the first flight of the 787, which could take place just before the Air Show opens, will give Boeing an opportunity to put some gloss back on its new long-haul, twin-engined jet, which has suffered from numerous delays. The previous Air Show had allowed Airbus to relaunch its A350, a direct competitor for the 787. Today, despite delays of more than two years, the fact that the first deliveries are unlikely before 2010 and the 57 cancellations received since January, the 787 still has a considerable lead over its European rival, which is not expected to come into service until 2013 at the earliest. The 787 still boasts more than 800 orders, against 483 for the A350. However, Airbus, which had only thirteen A350 orders prior to the 2007 Le Bourget Air Show, has displayed its desire to continue the fight back until it reaches at least a 50 share of the market for long-haul, twin-engined plane. This market is likely to represent the biggest prize over the next two decades, with global potential estimated at 5,900 new planes over 20 years. Thus battle is likely to be rejoined between the A350 XWB and the B787, as well as with the Boeing 777-300, which will also be a direct competitor for the future A350 family. The competition will be made all the more interesting by the fact that despite the recession, several major contracts have recently been put out to tender, notably by Air France-KLM and more recently by United, covering several hundred long-haul planes of this type. The traditional meeting of European Transport Ministers during the Air Show could be an opportunity for Airbus to make some progress on the sensitive topic of state support for the financing of the A350.